Tuesday 28 June 2016

Euro 2016: Hungary vs Belgium



Hungary: One of the surprises in this Euro 2016. They play good football and seem to quite easily score goals  due to having multiple players with a good shot.
Belgium: As was already mentioned in other blog posts I think the coach did well to take Fellaini out of the team and add creativity to the center and speed in the wings.

I do not expect an easy victory by Belgium and I even believed that Hungary could make a surprise in this game.

In my opinion, Belgium entered very well in the game creating goal opportunities. As Hungary is not a strong team doing the "Park the Bus" there was too much space for the Belgians to play.


Few minutes from the start of the game and I started to bet in favor of Belgium.
I was still putting money on the market and Toby scores the goal. I closed my bet with a profit of around 35%.

Finally, an "easy game" to catch the goal :)

Sunday 26 June 2016

Euro 2016: France & Germany


Today a post slightly different due to the lack of possibilities for game analysis entries because of earlier goals in the games.

France vs Ireland: Ireland scored very early, and France was almost the entire first half sleeping. I do not consider the best time to make long entries based on game analysis, when is a favorite team losing, because the price tends to devalue very fast.

Germany vs Slovakia: Wanted to wait a bit and confirm the superiority of Germany with goal opportunities. Did not go well, the Germans scored relatively early. I had the money to go after the corner that gave the goal Boateng,

Not a very profitable Euro for me in this kind of entries, the goals or arrive early or tend to not appear.
It could be worse if I was not profiting :)

Friday 24 June 2016

Euro 2016: Northern Ireland vs Germany



Little or nothing to say. Germany together with Spain is quite ahead of other teams, both tactically and collectively.
Any team out of the top teams can hardly defeat Germany.

As soon as the game started I realized the supremacy of Germany and began to bet in favor of them. It was a matter of time before the goal appears.
The supremacy of Germany was so remarkable that Toni Kroos alone completed more passes than all Northern Ireland players together. The Germans ended up with 79% of ball possession!


Not that it was needed but I also leave the graph of the BN formula to demonstrate the analysis.
I closed my bet after the goal with a profit around 20% of the amount risked.

Thursday 23 June 2016

Euro 2016: Slovakia vs England



England: In front of the defense the only player that I would change is Vardy by Rooney. For me, this was the lineup and strongest England team. For this, and perhaps unlike the rest of the people, I had confidence that this would be a game well done by the British.
Slovakia: A good surprise in this competition with a quality football and a Hamsik in a huge form playing like a Slovenian "Iniesta".

I saw the first two games of Slovakia and as mentioned above they had a quality football so I expect a difficult game to analyze.

I've been watching the game for 12 minutes. At that point, the British team had already created some goal opportunities and seemed to have the control of the game. As I predicted this England midfield seems to work much better than the last. I bet in favor of England in an odd around 1.8.
I removed the bet sometimes between the 20 and 32 minute as England seemed no longer to be so good during that period, as it could be confirmed by BetNoty graph stagnation.


From the 32nd minute, England improved again and I kept my bet until halftime.
Although the British had dominated the game from there, as can be seen in the graph (print at halftime), the goal did not come.


As the odd did not devalue, because of the supremacy of the British in the first half, I closed my bet at halftime without any loss

Saturday 18 June 2016

Euro 2016: Belgium vs Ireland



Belgium: In this game Belgium's coach opted for what I have beeing telling here on the blog. Against inferior teams, you can abdicate of a midfield player for a more creative/offensive one. Totally agree with the placement of the defensive midfielder Dembele and Witsel at position 8 with De Bruyne in the middle and Carrasco as a winger.
Ireland: I don´t know well the team, I know that they will choose to defend deep and try to play on the counterattack.

Belgium took long to convince me. Only around the 15th minute I began to bet in favor of the Belgians on an odd of 1.89. My confidence was not much and I did not think that Belgium was creating many opportunities but I consider these three factors:
1 - Ireland did not create danger in the area of ​​Belgium;
2 - In my opinion, the odd of Belgium was too high.
3 - Belgium has players who can reach the goal of nowhere, with an individual move or a moment of inspiration (Hazard and De Bruyne mostly).

To my misfortune, I closed my bet at the break with a loss of around 4.3%. Misfortune since Belgium opened the scoring early in the 2nd half.

Euro 2016: Spain vs Turkey



Spain: All normal without any casualties. Against Turkey, it can justify two-game organizers. To highlight the huge form of Iniesta!
Turkey: Some good individuals but sincerely little collective game. After the game with Croatia seemed to me that is a team with little potential to qualify.

Given the weak performance of Turkey and the momentum of Spain, especially the good form of Iniesta, I expect a natural victory of Spain.

Spain came in strong and after 10 minutes had already sufficient indicators for me to bet in favor of Spain. Although there was a period where the Spanish lowered the pace of the game I kept my bet until the goal of Morata at the 34th minute.
I closed the bet with profit around 28%.

Finally, I caught my first goal based on game analysis in this Euro, which began very "warm" but now seems to be improving.

Monday 13 June 2016

Euro 2016: Spain vs Czech Republic



Spain: Lineup inside normal. Spain seems to play a little below normal. As I mentioned in France game I think that Spain against weaker teams, who tend to defend behind the midfield line, could give up one of the men in the midfield (Busquets takes them all!). In this case, my choice could be to leave David Silva free in the middle and exchange Fàbregas by Pedro to play on one of the wings.
Czech Republic: I do not know many of the players. I know it's one of the teams with older players and with few stars to make a good Euro.
Having said that I expected a natural victory of Spain.

The Czech Republic entered the game strong which was good because it made the odd Spain adjust for a better price.
By the time that Spain started to dominate the game, around the 20th minute, I bet in favor of them until around 60 minutes into the game. Spain supremacy was clear as we can see in BetNoty.


Yet was not this time that I profited. I closed my bet with a loss of around 5% around the 60th minute.